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Biden inches ahead of Trump in national polls but Electoral College victory remains uncertain


Florida – Joe Biden and Donald Trump achieved sweeping victories in presidential primary elections across the U.S. on Super Tuesday, from Maine to California, with the latter also securing over 80% of the votes in the Florida primary, setting the stage for an unprecedented rematch in November.

Biden Leads in National Polls

President Joe Biden is currently leading former President Donald Trump in the national polls, setting the stage for a highly anticipated rematch in the upcoming presidential election. This lead, however, is slender, with surveys showing Biden ahead by margins as narrow as one to three points. The real question remains whether this lead will translate into an Electoral College victory, a crucial determinant of the final outcome in the presidential race.

Insights from Recent Polls

In the wake of both Biden and Trump securing a series of primary elections on March 12, thereby becoming their party’s presumptive nominees, the focus has shifted to how a potential electoral battle between these two political titans would unfold. A variety of polls conducted in March have provided insights into the current state of the race.

Poll Results Highlight a Close Contest

A survey by Mainstream Research and Florida Atlantic University, which polled 1,053 American adults from March 15 to 17, found that 47 percent of likely voters would choose Biden “if the election for president were held today,” compared to 45 percent for Trump. Interestingly, 4 percent expressed their intention to vote for another candidate, while another 4 percent remained undecided.

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Another poll, this one by Ipsos and Reuters, surveyed 3,356 registered voters between March 7 and 13. It showed a tighter race, with 39 percent favoring Biden and 38 percent leaning towards Trump. Notably, 11 percent preferred “some other candidate,” highlighting a significant portion of the electorate still exploring alternatives.

Civiqs’ online survey of 1,324 registered voters, conducted from March 9 to 12, also reflected a closely contested race, with Biden garnering 45 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent. Emerson College’s poll of 1,350 registered voters on March 5 and 6 initially had both candidates tied at 45 percent, but Biden slightly pulled ahead to 51 percent against Trump’s 49 percent when undecided voters were prompted to choose a side.

The most recent YouGov/The Economist survey, published on March 22, provided Biden with a one-point lead at 45 percent. Similarly, a Kaiser Family Foundation poll indicated a three-point advantage for Biden, with 47 percent of the vote from a survey conducted between February 20 and 28. Lastly, a TIPP poll placed Biden slightly ahead with 44 percent support.

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Electoral College Challenge Looms

Despite Biden’s edge in the popular vote, according to these surveys, the Electoral College system poses a potential challenge. Trump has shown a lead in key battleground states such as Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. This discrepancy echoes the 2016 election, where Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College to Trump.

Moreover, Trump led Biden in three out of five national polls conducted in late January, suggesting a fluid and unpredictable race ahead. The thin margins in the national polls and Trump’s advantage in critical swing states underscore the uncertainty and high stakes of the upcoming election, reminding voters and candidates alike of the unpredictable nature of U.S. presidential politics.

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