Trump’s approval plummets, red states are turning blue, midterms doomed: Is GOP’s heavy defeat in Florida just the start?
Florida – Republicans are going into the 2026 election campaign with signals that voters are getting more and more frustrated. New figures from several polling trackers show that the political landscape may be changing more quickly than party officials thought it would.
Recent data shows that Donald Trump’s popularity is dropping in two states, Iowa and Ohio, states that used to be the backbone of his electoral strength. This raises new questions about whether the GOP can keep its momentum going in a year full of economic concerns, internal divisions, and a string of Democratic victories in important races.
According to Morning Consult’s most recent state-level polling, which is based on three months of surveys of registered voters, Iowa and Ohio, two states that have always been solidly red and are key parts of Trump’s 2024 coalition, have suddenly shifted into net negative territory. A month ago, both states were among the 24 where Trump’s job approval ratings were still high. The update on December 5th brought that number down to 22, which shows a big change in how people feel in areas where Republicans have always felt somewhat safe.
The deterioration isn’t just happening in states that are strongly Republican. Trump’s unpopularity is at its highest level in numerous key battlegrounds since his second administration. The same set of statistics shows that most people in Arizona (51%), Georgia (50%), Michigan (52%), North Carolina (52%), and Wisconsin (54%) now disapprove of his work.
In all of these swing states, his approval rating is below water, which shows that Americans are generally skeptical of his administration this year. On December 9, he went to Pennsylvania to speak about how affordable his record is. Voters there are still divided: 47% approve and 50% disapprove. In Florida, which has historically been favorable for him, he has a smaller lead, with 50% approval and 46% disapproval.
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Republican strategists have been attempting to look confident, even if Democrats keep winning surprise races in local and statewide contests. These warning indicators come at a time when they are trying to do just that. Voters’ concerns about the cost of living, healthcare, and the effects of the most recent government shutdown have changed the political landscape. Democrats have used these issues to their advantage in contests throughout 2025.
Meanwhile, Trump has been getting more and more criticism from members of his own party that he hasn’t done enough to stabilize the economy. His rally in Pennsylvania was the start of a more active public program meant to debunk that story.
But his power was most clearly limited in Miami, where the mayoral candidate he backed just recently lost. This gave Democrats their first triumph in the city’s top office in almost 30 years. Republican leaders had reservations about the outcome because they had thought that Miami would help them win over Latino voters in the midterms. Instead, the loss added to a rising story: Trump’s coattails may not be as strong as they used to be, especially in cities and suburbs where there is a lot of competition.
The same thing may be seen in national approval ratings. RealClearPolitics data shows that Trump’s approval rating, which was formerly high, started to drop in early 2025 and then became negative in mid-March. By April 29, toward the end of his second term, his approval rating had dropped to 45.1%. In November, there was another drop, this time because of the publication of emails relating to Jeffrey Epstein and tensions after the shutdown. RealClearPolitics reported 43.9% approval and 52.8% dislike by December 9.
The New York Times aggregator is also part of the same effort. Trump’s approval rating started the year at 52% and plummeted to 44% by April. It stayed mostly constant until it hit a new low of 41% on November 12. A week later, his disapproval rating was at its highest point, at 56%. The Times said that 43% of respondents approved and 54% disapproved as of December 10.
The new data make Republicans even more nervous when compared to past trends. Gallup’s most recent poll, which ran from November 3 to 25, shows that only 36% of people approve of Trump. This is lower than any other modern president at the same stage in their first year in office, including Trump himself. The comparison shows how divided public opinion has grown and how hard it may be for Trump and the Republicans to win back support in the coming months.
The GOP is entering 2026 with a political map that is much less predictable than it was just a year ago. Iowa and Ohio are no longer solidly in Trump’s column, and Democrats are feeling good after recent wins.
