Based on recent surveys, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a modest lead over former President Donald Trump in three crucial Rust Belt states in a notable change in the political landscape. This development opens the path for Harris to take front stage as the Democratic frontrunner following President Joe Biden’s surprising declaration on July 21 stating he would not be seeking re-election.
Polls before Biden left revealed a difficult battle ahead of him. Biden trailed Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania according a Data for Progress poll taken from July 18 to 23. With 45% support versus Trump’s 49% in a straight matchup and even less in a six-way contest, this poll—which included responses from 1,571 potential voters—showcased Biden’s inferior position.
But a later poll taken between July 29 and August 2 showed a change in voter attitude once Harris became the anticipated Democratic nominee. In a head-to–head matchup, Harris beat Trump in this poll of 1,447 potential voters, landing 48% of the vote to Trump’s 47%. In a six-way contest, the same margin prevailed; Harris obtained 45% to Trump’s 44%.
These results not only show a change in voter inclination but also a notable rise in Democratic confidence on their prospects in the forthcoming presidential contest. Though most voters once thought Trump would eventually prevail, the difference has closed drastically. Comparatively to 35% for Biden, 58% of respondents in the first poll thought Trump would win. Those expecting a Trump win decreased to 49% in the most recent poll; 42% now see Harris as the likely winner.
NEW with @SplitTicket_: Among likely voters across Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by one point in a six-way race.
This is a five-point increase in support for Harris and a three-point decrease for Trump over the last two weeks.https://t.co/qhywj0AGip pic.twitter.com/TQpaMK9y5T
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) August 7, 2024
Harris’s favorability ratings have also changed; after her nomination, they rose six points from 42% to 48%. Trump’s favorability dropped marginally from 47% to 46% meanwhile. With 51% of respondents disagreeing with the perspective that she is too radical to be president, compared to 53% who consider Trump as too extreme, the surveys also show Harris is thought as less extremist than Trump.
For Harris, these encouraging signs, however, still present difficulties. Half of the voters still believe she covered up Biden’s health problems, a fact that could affect her campaign going ahead.
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These battleground states are once more proving to be vital for both parties as the race gets more intense; little changes in voter opinion might determine the result of what seems to be a closely contested election.
A honeymoon for Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris has experienced a significant rise in popularity following President Joe Biden’s decision to not seek re-election and his endorsement of her. Recent polls show her favorability ratings surpassing those of both Biden and former President Donald Trump. Political analysts suggest that Harris is in a “honeymoon period” of her campaign, which could see further boosts as she selects a running mate and heads into the Democratic National Convention.
However, they caution that this peak may be temporary, with expected declines as the novelty wears off and Republican criticisms intensify. The ultimate durability of her popularity will depend on various factors, including her handling of divisive issues and media scrutiny as the election approaches.
