Florida – As the 2024 presidential election draws near, the political climate is heating up, especially in key states like Florida. Once a reliable stronghold for former President Donald Trump, Florida now appears to be a fierce battleground, with President Joe Biden closing in on Trump’s lead. The weakening support in Florida is likely to create anxiety among Trump’s supporters and present a potential game-changer for Biden’s campaign.
DeSantis Joins Forces with Trump
Governor Ron DeSantis, once seen as a major contender against Trump in the Republican primaries, suspended his campaign early and has since aligned himself with Trump. This alliance marks a significant turn in the political landscape. DeSantis, leveraging his immense popularity in Florida, has been instrumental in organizing fundraising events to bolster Trump’s campaign. Under his leadership, Florida has seen a surge in registered Republican voters, transforming the state from a swing state to a Republican stronghold. However, this support is now crucial for Trump as he faces a narrowing lead.
Surprising Poll Results Shake Up Florida Politics
Trump’s campaign is under pressure to maintain its hold on Florida. Recent polls indicate that while Trump still has a slight edge, his lead is precarious. A recent Fox News survey has sent shockwaves through Florida’s political scene, showing Trump’s lead over Biden shrinking to just four points—50% to 46%. This margin is within the survey’s error range, indicating a highly competitive race.
According to another poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research, Trump’s lead over Biden has decreased from 50% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup. This poll, conducted among 883 registered voters in Florida, underscores the volatility of the current political landscape.
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In 2020, Trump won Florida with 51.2% of the vote compared to Biden’s 47.9%. However, current polling suggests that this lead is no longer secure.
The unexpected poll results have invigorated Florida Democrats. Former Obama campaign spokesperson Kevin Cate noted, “If this race is within four, Trump is spending major money and time here, which is a MASSIVE win for Joe Biden and Florida Democrats.” This sentiment is echoed by NBC News National politics reporter Matt Dixon, who expressed surprise at the close margin.
Potential Third-Party Influence
While Florida Democrats are buoyed by the recent poll, there’s concern about how third-party candidates might impact the race. If the contest expands to include figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, Trump’s lead could widen to seven points, with Biden’s share of the vote dropping significantly. This dynamic adds another layer of complexity to an already unpredictable race.
Other surveys
According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results, Trump has a 1.0% lead based on 740 polls nationwide. This is just 0.1% below what Trump was seeing nearly two weeks ago on Thursday when he was found guilty in the New York hush money case. Based on 18 polls, Trump has a 7.2% over Biden in Florida according to The Hill data.
Public Opinion on Trump’s Conviction
Trump’s recent conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records has been a focal point of media coverage. However, 64% of Floridians believe the conviction won’t affect Trump’s political standing, with 50% saying it won’t matter at all. The public is divided on whether Trump received a fair trial, with 52% affirming the fairness of the trial and 45% disagreeing.
Despite his legal troubles, Trump maintains a relatively favorable view among Florida voters, with a 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable rating. In contrast, Biden’s ratings are lower, with 42% favorable and 56% unfavorable. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also faces a higher unfavorable rating of 46%, compared to his 34% favorable rating.
The Battle for Florida Intensifies
As the election approaches, both campaigns are likely to intensify their efforts in Florida, recognizing its critical role in determining the outcome of the presidential race.
The upcoming election in Florida is shaping up to be a highly contested battle. Trump’s once formidable lead is under threat as Biden gains ground. The involvement of Governor DeSantis and the impact of third-party candidates add layers of complexity to an already heated race. As both campaigns ramp up their efforts, the eyes of the nation will be on Florida, a state that could very well determine the next president of the United States.
