Trump’s home-state standing takes surprising hit as new poll shows support slipping among Republicans and 2024 Trump voters
Florida – President Donald Trump’s political standing appears to have weakened in Florida, according to newly released polling that shows his approval rating has slipped below water in the state he now calls home. The survey suggests the decline is not limited to independent voters or Democrats, with support also softening among Republicans and people who backed Trump in the 2024 election.
The findings come as both parties begin looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats arguing that Florida could become more competitive than many expected just months ago.
Florida numbers show a noticeable shift
A new survey conducted by Global Strategy Group (GSG) found that 52% of Florida voters now view Trump unfavorably, while 46% hold a favorable opinion of the president. That represents a major change from January, when Trump held a positive net rating in the state.
According to the poll, the movement amounts to a ten-point swing, taking Trump from a net approval rating of +4 to -6 among Florida voters.
The survey was released through the campaign of Democratic Senate candidate Alex Vindman, who is seeking to unseat Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November. The polling memo argues that Trump’s declining numbers have changed the political landscape heading into next year’s elections.
“This double-digit decline in Trump’s popularity has created a more favorable political environment for Democrats in 2026, despite Florida’s partisan dynamics,” the memo states.
Perhaps more striking than the overall numbers is where the erosion appears to be occurring.
The survey indicates Trump’s support has fallen by 15 points among White college-aged voters since January. Registered Republicans also showed a net decline of 10 points in approval, while voters who identified themselves as Trump supporters in the 2024 election likewise registered a 10-point drop.
If that trend continues, it could complicate Republican efforts to defend Florida’s Senate seat, particularly since the same polling firm reported in May that Moody held only a narrow 46% to 43% advantage over Vindman, a margin that fell within the survey’s 3.1% margin of error.
The poll also places Florida in a broader national pattern. GSG found Trump underwater in other traditionally Republican states, including Ohio, where his approval stood at 41% compared with 53% disapproval, and Texas, where voters gave him a 41% approval rating against 54% disapproval.
The comparison with Trump’s previous midterm cycle is also notable. In 2018, while Trump faced national headwinds, he still maintained a positive image among Florida voters. That year, Republican Rick Scott defeated Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson even as Republicans lost control of the U.S. House. According to GSG, Trump’s political standing in Florida has weakened considerably since then.
National polling paints a similar picture
The Florida survey arrives alongside broader national polling that also points to growing challenges for the president.
Although Trump recently claimed that his approval ratings “are the highest they have ever been,” data journalist G. Elliott Morris argued that recent polling does not support that assessment.
According to Morris, Democrats continue to hold a consistent lead on the generic congressional ballot. “Turning to the midterms, the Democrats lead Republicans on the House congressional ballot by a margin of 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters,” Morris wrote. He also noted that Democratic candidates have maintained an advantage in every Strength In Numbers/Verasight survey conducted since May 2025, with leads ranging from five to ten percentage points.
National approval numbers also remain difficult for the president. “Our poll finds Donald Trump’s overall approval rating among U.S. adults stable at 37 percent this month, with 60 percent of Americans disapproving of how he’s handling his job as president,” Morris explained.
While he noted that Trump’s ratings on inflation have stopped falling, they remain deeply negative. Morris reported that only one-quarter of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of prices, while more than seven in ten disapprove.
Beyond inflation, Morris said the president continues to receive negative ratings across nearly every major issue tested. “He is underwater on 11 of the 12 issues we tested,” Morris said, pointing to negative ratings on health care, the economy, trade, education, foreign policy, government funding, immigration and several other issues.
Border security remains Trump’s strongest issue, where Morris said the president still holds a small positive net rating. However, he noted that Trump remains below water on related topics such as immigration, crime and deportations.
Political analysts also say voter enthusiasm currently appears to favor Democrats ahead of the midterms. “[D]emocrats are overwhelmingly enthusiastic about voting for non-Republican candidates this November and we have seen this not once, not twice, not in an outlier way, but in a consistent way,” Puck News’ John Heilemann said during an appearance on MS NOW. “Democrats are showing up and they’re showing up in large numbers by the standards of off-year elections and the standards of special elections, and they’re not just exceeding [Trump’s margins from 2024] but blowing them out of the water.”
Whether Florida ultimately follows those national trends remains uncertain. Still, the latest polling suggests that even in a state long viewed as friendly territory for Trump, his political position may not be as secure as it once was, especially if support continues to soften among key Republican and pro-Trump voting blocs.
