Florida governor race takes unexpected turn as new poll shows Trump-backed Byron Donalds trailing Democrat David Jolly statewide
Florida – For years, Florida has been viewed as one of the Republican Party’s strongest battlegrounds. The GOP controls every statewide elected office, enjoys a significant voter registration advantage, and has watched the state move steadily to the right in recent election cycles. That is why a new poll showing Democrat David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds is attracting attention far beyond Florida.
The survey, conducted by Change Research, suggests the race to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis may be more competitive than many political observers expected. While the election remains more than a year away, the findings offer Democrats a rare sign of optimism in a state where they have struggled to win statewide contests.
FLORIDA POLL By Change Research
Governor
🟦 David Jolly: 49%
🟥 Byron Donalds: 43%
—
Senate
🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 46%
🟦 Alex Vindman: 46%6/11-14 | 1,014 LVhttps://t.co/U6cE3z2O8p pic.twitter.com/ova4vcbjR7
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 17, 2026
According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds by five percentage points among registered voters, 47 percent to 42 percent. Among likely voters, the margin grows slightly, with Jolly receiving 49 percent support compared to Donalds’ 43 percent.
The results stand out because Florida Democrats have not won a statewide election since 2018. Since then, Republicans have continued to strengthen their position throughout the state, culminating in DeSantis’ overwhelming reelection victory in 2022, when he won by nearly 20 percentage points.
A Different Kind of Contest
The matchup presents voters with two candidates offering sharply different visions for Florida’s future.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, has focused much of his campaign on everyday economic concerns. He has repeatedly highlighted issues such as rising insurance premiums, housing affordability, and healthcare costs.
Donalds, meanwhile, is running as a conservative ally of President Donald Trump. His campaign has emphasized immigration enforcement, conservative policies, and continuing many of the priorities that have defined Florida’s Republican leadership over the last several years.
Trump has remained one of Donalds’ most influential supporters. Last month, the president once again praised the Florida congressman and publicly reinforced his endorsement. “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” Trump said.
The president continued with an even stronger endorsement. “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”
Despite that support, the latest numbers suggest Donalds still faces challenges as the race begins to take shape.
Polling Trends Show Movement
The newest Change Research survey was conducted among 1,273 registered voters, including 1,015 respondents who said they are likely to participate in the 2026 election. The survey carries a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
One of the more notable findings involves party unity.
According to the survey, Jolly receives support from 94 percent of Democratic voters. Donalds, by comparison, receives backing from 77 percent of Republican voters. That gap suggests Democrats currently appear more consolidated behind their candidate than Republicans are behind theirs.
The results also align with another Change Research survey conducted earlier this year.
That poll, taken between May 13 and May 16, showed Jolly ahead by four points, 46 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 2,070 registered voters, including 1,593 likely voters, and carried a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.
Together, the two polls suggest a consistent advantage for Jolly, though both originate from the same polling organization.
However, not all polling has pointed in the same direction.
An Emerson College Polling survey conducted at the end of March painted a very different picture. In that poll, Donalds led Jolly 44 percent to 39 percent, while 17 percent of voters remained undecided.
That earlier survey, conducted among 1,125 likely voters, carried a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
What Comes Next
The conflicting polling highlights just how early the contest remains. Voter opinions can change significantly before Election Day, particularly in a state as politically active as Florida.
Still, the latest numbers are likely to energize Democrats who have spent years searching for a path back to statewide relevance. For Republicans, the polling serves as a reminder that even in states where they have enjoyed recent success, elections cannot be taken for granted.
With DeSantis leaving office due to term limits, Florida is preparing for its first open governor’s race in years. The battle will likely attract enormous national attention, substantial fundraising, and intense campaigning from both parties.
Whether Jolly’s current lead holds up remains to be seen. But for now, a race many assumed would heavily favor Republicans suddenly appears far less predictable than expected, setting the stage for what could become one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests in the country.
