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Probation or a harsher sentence to show no one is above the law? Experts weigh in following Trump’s conviction in New York.

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Florida – The former president is involved in legal challenges in several states, including Florida, New York, Georgia, and Washington, D.C., making him the first former president in U.S. history to face criminal charges.

In Florida, Trump faces 40 serious charges concerning his handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. These charges involve the willful retention of sensitive documents and efforts to obstruct federal authorities as they attempted to retrieve them. In Washington, D.C., Trump faces accusations of undermining the peaceful transition of power following his 2020 electoral defeat to President Joe Biden. In Georgia, Trump faces charges under the state’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) law for allegedly coordinating efforts to obstruct the proper certification of Georgia’s 2020 presidential election results.

First Former President to be Convicted

But Donald Trump is not only the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges, but he has also become the only former President of the United States to be convicted of a crime. In New York, a jury found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a scheme aimed at unlawfully influencing the 2016 presidential election. This verdict has not only placed Trump in an unprecedented legal predicament but has also cast a long shadow over his aspirations for re-election in November.

Following the jury’s decision, Trump, who is also facing trials in three additional criminal cases with no set start dates, appears to be increasingly mired in legal troubles. His sentencing for the New York offenses is scheduled just over a month away, coinciding closely with the Republican National Convention where he is expected to be confirmed as the GOP presidential nominee.

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GOP’s Concerns

Senate Republicans are expressing deep concerns over the potential impact of New York Judge Juan Merchan’s upcoming sentencing of former President Donald Trump. They warn that any decision to imprison or place Trump under house arrest could severely disrupt his ability to campaign for the 2024 presidential election, undermining his chances as the likely GOP nominee.

A Historic Verdict and Its Implications

The conviction has stirred significant national discourse, with many contemplating the implications for Trump and the broader political landscape. Bennett Gershman, a former New York prosecutor and a law professor at Pace University, commented on the severity of Trump’s legal entanglements, suggesting that Trump is now entrenched in the very “cesspool” he once criticized—a realm populated by “grifters, losers, and misfits.”

The pivotal moments in the trial came when the jury revisited testimonies from key figures such as David Pecker, the former National Enquirer publisher, and Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer and a vocal critic. Their testimonies, particularly about the catch-and-kill strategy employed to influence media coverage during the 2016 campaign, were crucial in leading to Trump’s conviction.

As the sentencing date approaches, the legal community is abuzz with speculation about the potential outcomes. While Judge Juan Merchan will determine the sentence, the debate among legal experts centers on whether Trump will face actual prison time. Adam Pollock, a former assistant New York attorney general, expects that Trump, like most first-time offenders convicted of Class E felonies, might avoid a jail sentence and instead face probation or other alternative sentencing measures.

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Trump’s defense attorney and a former Manhattan District Attorney have also shared their perspectives recently on whether Trump might face jail time. Cyrus Vance Jr., the former Manhattan District Attorney, expressed his skepticism about the likelihood of Trump serving jail time. Todd Blanche, Trump’s attorney, argued that Trump should not be sentenced to prison due to his age and the nature of his offenses. In an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Blanche emphasized that other first-time offenders of Trump’s age would not typically face prison sentences for similar conduct.

Officials have been tight-lipped about their sentencing intentions, but the scope of Trump’s alleged misconduct and his subsequent public demeanor may influence the court’s decision. Trump’s repeated public outbursts against the judiciary and the legal process, including a recent tirade where he labeled Judge Merchan a “devil,” might tilt the scales towards a harsher sentence.

Eliza Orlins, a Manhattan public defender, echoed a sentiment of skepticism regarding the likelihood of jail time for Trump, citing his high-profile status and ongoing presidential campaign. However, she suggested that the court might impose a significant fine and set stringent conditions for a conditional discharge.

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Despite the array of legal opinions, Bennett Gershman believes a substantial prison sentence could be on the table, arguing that it’s crucial for upholding the rule of law and demonstrating that no individual, not even a former president, is above the law.

As Trump prepares to appeal the conviction, the outcome of this appeal, along with the unfolding of his other criminal trials, will significantly impact his political fate and the legal precedents concerning presidential accountability. The situation places the American judicial system in a spotlight, testing its capacity to handle cases involving high-ranking political figures without bias.

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